Time Series Analysis For Under-Five Mortality In Moi Teaching And Referral Hospital. (2006-2015)

Abstract

Kenya being among the developing countries, it is experiencing a challenge of under-five mortality as she strives to ensure health lives and promote well-being for all at all ages as stated in Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Goal Number 3. This study carried out a time series analysis on the under-five mortality rate at Moi Teaching and Referral hospital in Eldoret, from January 2006 to December 2015. The data used was secondary obtained from MTRH. The study found out that mortality series in MTRH hospital recorded the highest number of child deaths in 2008 with 1157 deaths in 2008 and the lowest in 2014 with 932 deaths. Descriptive showed that Malaria accounted for most of the deaths (26%). The ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model adequately fitted under-five Mortality data and was able to forecast monthly under-five Mortality rate at the facility for the period of January 2016 to December 2017. This study is of important to the hospital since it can be adopted by the facility so that they can use to forecast the future mortality rate and to develop policies, programs and project to reduce under-five mortality.