Mathematical Analysis Of Outpatient Attendance In Kenyatta National Hospital

Abstract

Hospitals in Kenya are always overwhelmed by the unexpected high Outpatient attendance. Kenyatta National Hospital being the biggest Referral Hospital in Kenya is no exception. This reason supports this study where Outpatient attendance data from 2011 to 2016 will be gathered for developing an adequate time series model and forecasting outpatient attendance for the next two years (2017 and 2018). Time series models like AR, MA, and ARMA will be fitted to the data. The study will also identify the best fit time series model among AR, MA and ARMA. The study will be significant in helping the Government of Kenya in reviewing its financial commitment and contribution to the various health facilities throughout the country and also support the management of Kenyatta National Hospital in the planning of the hospital operations and preparation for a large number of outpatients in future. It was revealed that the most adequate model for the data was the ARIMA (1, 0, 2). Also, there will be an increase in the OPD attendance at the hospital in the next two years. It is recommended that in order for the hospital to prepare adequately, the forecasted figures should be relied upon in planning its activities.