Abstract:
The current changing climate requires the development of water–energy–food
(WEF) nexus-oriented systems capable of mainstreaming climate-smart innovations into
resource management. This study demonstrates the cross-sectoral impacts of climate
change on interlinked sectors of water, energy, and food in Narok County, Kenya, and
Vhembe District, South Africa. This study used projected hydroclimatic extremes across
past, present, and future scenarios to examine potential effects on the availability and accessibility of these essential resources. The projected temperature and rainfall are based
on nine dynamically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP
5) of the Global Climate Models (GCMs). The model outputs were derived from two IPCC
“Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)’’, the RCP 4.5 “moderate scenario”, and
RCP 8.5 “business as usual scenario”, also defined as the addition of 4.5 W/m2 and 8.5
W/m2 radiative forcing in the atmosphere, respectively, by the year 2100. For the climate
change projections, outputs from the historical period (1976–2005) and projected time intervals spanning the near future, defined as the period starting from 2036 to 2065, and the
far future, spanning from 2066 to 2095, were considered. An ensemble model to increase
the skill, reliability, and consistency of output was formulated from the nine models. The
statistical bias correction based on quantile mapping using seven ground-based observation data from the South African Weather Services (SAWS) for Limpopo province and
nine ground-based observation data acquired from the Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO) for Narok were used to correct the systematic biases. Results
indicate downscaled climate change scenarios and integrate a modelling framework
designed to depict the perceptions of future climate change impacts on communities
based on questionnaires and first-hand accounts. Furthermore, the analysis points to concerted efforts of multi-stakeholder engagement, the access and use of technology, understanding the changing business environment, integrated government and private sector
partnerships, and the co-development of community resilience options, including climate
change adaptation and mitigation in the changing climate. The conceptual climate and
WEF resource modelling framework confirmed that future climate change will have noticeable interlinked impacts on WEF resources that will impact the livelihoods of vulnerable communities. Building the resilience of communities can be achieved through transformative WEF nexus solutions that are inclusive, sustainable, equitable, and balance adaptation and mitigation goals to ensure a just and sustainable future for all.
