Abstract:
HIV/AIDS still remains a challenging pandemic worldwide. Significantly, statistical models are very essential to the continuing growth of Health institutions around the world as they (statistical models) give procedures to be adhered to by organizations or the Health institutions when carrying out their activities. Hospitals would avoid losing the patients especially the under five HIV infected children because of lack of using statistical models that can predict their future and reduce the number infected per unit time. Some Health institutions initially provide medications and diagnosis to the infected children without looking at a scenario where they can reduce the number of infected and more importantly forecast if they can provide good facilities to prevent the number of children being infected or even transmission of HIV during birth and breastfeeding. However, diagnosis alone would not solve a problem when more and more under five children are dying every day. The number of deaths of under-five may be reduced. This shows a need of a numerical model for the Hospital management to understand the situation better. This project aims to show that the Time series analysis and Multiple Regression Solves the intended problem when tested with a real-case scenario. Data was obtained from the records kept by the Hospital managers of the students' Health Unit in MMU and the Narok County Referral Hospital as well as through observation. While the data for the study was analyzed in which MS excel has been used to enter, sort and group the data, in which the determination of how regular are the past HIV I AIDS trends and What are the chances that these patterns change, determination of whether future HIV/AIDS counts dependent at least partially on the present observable counts, reliability and accuracy are the Pastdata on HIV infection to the children under the age of five yearsand the number of children under the age of five years dying were derived based on the data using a method to correct AIDS count, the smoothing of exponential trend andderived based on the data using a method to correct AIDS count, the smoothing of exponential trend and the multiple Regression Model. The paper was concluded by discussing the benefits of performing analysis to a busy and well equipped hospital.
