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http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/15602
Modeling Dependence using Copula Garch
Floriane Nsabimana , Hellen Waititu and Cornelious Nyakundi
This study sought to investigate the tail dependence between government debt and bank’s nonperforming
loans. The objectives of this study were formulation of a bivariate copula model which captures the
dependence between government debt and bank non-performing loans and measuring the tail and asymmetric
dependence between the two variables, the study used quarterly data sourced from World Bank. To model the
dependence between debt and bank non-performing, different methods have been used. The study estimated
the dependence using copula GARCH, an approach that combines copula functions and GARCH models.
According to forming the effect of local government debt and bank’s non-performing loans, copula models
have been applied to analyze the asymmetry of tail dependence structure between government debt exposure
and bank non-performing loans. We used R programming language and Excel to plot and analyze data. The
results showed that student t copula parameter provided the best fit for the marginal distributions. The
results show the influence of government debt on bank non-performing loans. Further researchers should focus
on time to ensure the effectiveness of risk measurement and management.
Keywords: Copula; tail dependence; Government debt; bank non-performing loans.
2023-01-01T00:00:00ZKenyan Free-Tailed Bats Demonstrate Seasonal Birth Pulse Asynchrony with Implications for Virus Maintenance
http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/15601
Kenyan Free-Tailed Bats Demonstrate Seasonal Birth Pulse Asynchrony with Implications for Virus Maintenance
Tamika J. Lunn , Reilly T. Jackson, Paul W. Webala , Joseph Ogola, and Kristian M. Forbes
: Ecological information on wildlife reservoirs is fundamental for research targeting prevention of
zoonotic infectious disease, yet basic information is lacking for many species in global hotspots of disease
emergence. We provide the first estimates of synchronicity, magnitude, and timing of seasonal birthing in Mops
condylurus, a putative ebolavirus host, and a co-roosting species, Mops pumilus (formerly Chaerephon pumilus).
We show that population-level synchronicity of M. condylurus birthing is wide (* 8.5 weeks) and even wider
in M. pumilus (> 11 weeks). This is predicted to promote the likelihood of filovirus persistence under
conditions of bi-annual birthing (two births per year). Ecological features underlying the magnitude of the
birth pulse—relative female abundance (higher than expected for M. condylurus and lower for M. pumilus,
based on literature) and reproductive rate (lower than expected)—will have countering effects on birthing
magnitude. Species-specific models are needed to interpret how identified birth pulse attributes may interact
with other features of molossid ebolavirus ecology to influence infection dynamics. As a common feature of
wildlife species, and a key driver of infection dynamics, detailed information on seasonal birthing will be
fundamental for future research on these species and will be informative for bat-borne zoonoses generally.
Keywords: Africa, Chaerephon, Ebola virus disease, Filovirus, Molossidae, Transmission
2024-01-01T00:00:00ZHuman impacts on bats in tropical ecosystems: sustainable actions and alternatives
http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/15600
Human impacts on bats in tropical ecosystems: sustainable actions and alternatives
Paulo Estefano D. Bobrowiec, William Douglas Carvalho, Ana Rainho , Paul W. Webala and Ludmilla M. S. Aguiar
1
Programa de Po´ s-Graduac¸ão em Ecologia, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazoˆ nia,
Manaus, Brazil, 2Instituto Tecnolo´ gico Vale, Bele´ m, Brazil, 3Terrestrial Ecology Group (TEG-UAM),
Departamento de Ecolog´ıa, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Auto´ noma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain,
4Centro de Investigacio´ n en Biodiversidad y Cambio Global (CIBC-UAM), Universidad Auto´ noma de
Madrid, Madrid, Spain, 5Programa de Po´ s-Graduac¸ão em Biodiversidade Tropical, Universidade
Federal do Amapa´, Macapa´, Brazil, 6cE3c-Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental
Changes & CHANGE - Global Change and Sustainability Institute, Departamento de Biologia Animal,
Faculdade de Cieˆ ncias, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal, 7
Department of Forestry and Wildlife
Management, Maasai Mara University, Narok, Kenya, 8Laboratory of Bat Biology and Conservation,
Department of Zoology, Biological Science Institute, University of Bras´ılia, Bras´ılia, Brazil
KEYWORDS
agricultural systems, Chiroptera, ecosystem services, landscape change, mining,
replacing native vegetation, rubber plantation, selective logging
2024-01-01T00:00:00ZFrequent and intense human-bat interactions occur in buildings of rural Kenya
http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/15599
Frequent and intense human-bat interactions occur in buildings of rural Kenya
Reilly T. JacksonID1 *, Tamika J. Lunn, Isabella K. DeAnglis , Joseph G. Ogola , Paul W. Webala , Kristian M. Forbes
Simultaneous use of domestic spaces by humans and wildlife is little understood, despite
global ubiquity, and can create an interface for human exposure to wildlife pathogens. Bats
are a pervasive synanthropic taxon and are associated with several pathogens that can spill
over and cause disease in humans. Urbanization has destroyed much natural bat habitat
and, in response, many species increasingly use buildings as roosts. The purpose of this
study was to characterize human interactions with bats in shared buildings to assess potential for human exposure to and spillover of bat-borne pathogens. We surveyed 102 people
living and working in buildings used as bat roosts in Taita-Taveta county, Kenya between
2021 and 2023. We characterized and quantified the duration, intensity, and frequency of
human-bat interactions occurring in this common domestic setting. Survey respondents
reported living with bats in buildings year-round, with cohabitation occurring consistently for
at least 10 years in 38% of cases. Human contact with bats occurred primarily through direct
and indirect routes, including exposure to excrement (90% of respondents), and direct
touching of bats (39% of respondents). Indirect contacts most often occurred daily, and
direct contacts most often occurred yearly. Domestic animal consumption of bats was also
reported (16% of respondents). We demonstrate that shared building use by bats and
humans in rural Kenya leads to prolonged, frequent, and sometimes intense interactions
between bats and humans, consistent with interfaces that can facilitate exposure to bat
pathogens and subsequent spillover. Identifying and understanding the settings and practices that may lead to zoonotic pathogen spillover is of great global importance for developing countermeasures, and this study establishes bat roosts in buildings as such a setting
2024-01-01T00:00:00Z